OPINION
Suits silence scaremongers
The American Council on Science and Health has just issued a special report entitled A Review of the 20 Greatest Unfounded Health Scares of Recent Times which disproves the public opposition to many chemicals which the agricultural industry is no longer allowed to use.The council is an independent group of over 300 eminent scientists based in New York. Founded in 1978, the council is dedicated to separating real, proven health risks from unfounded health scares based on questionable, hypothetical or even non-existent scientific evidence.
The council notes a common theme among the so-called scares such as the indiscriminate extrapolation of laboratory tests involving rodents fed huge doses of given substances, the fear of "synthetic" chemicals even when some of the same substances exist far more abundantly in nature. It cites "ignorance of the basic principle of toxicology, 'the dose makes the poison', as consumers fretted over the presence of even a single molecule of a substance that might only be hazardous in far larger amounts."
DDT is the worst example of public hysteria in the '60s and '70s. Despite the fact that it had saved as many as 500 million human lives worldwide from such diseases as malaria, the matter of possible eggshell thinning in some species of birds resulted in a ban in the U.S. and Canada.
A few tropical countries still use DDT to control mosquitoes and, thus, malaria, but according to the United Nations, two million persons die each year from this fourth-largest cause of death in the world. The environmentalists ignore this consequence of their actions.
Another example was cyclamates. Numerous scientific bodies have studied them recently and have not found any evidence that they are carcinogenic. DES in beef was banned in 1979, in the absence of any evidence that DES in beef might cause even a single case of human cancer.
Other products without evidence of harm are: nitrates, red dye Number Two, saccharin, hair dyes, asbestos in hair dryers, 2,4,5-T, coffee's link to pancreatic cancer, and Ethylene dibromide, which prevents 'knock' in engines and is an agricultural fumigant. Also included were benzine in Perrier water, amalgam dental fillings and cellular phones. Not to mention Alar.
It is impossible to estimate the damage in costs to producers and consumers and human life from the actions of self-centred single interest groups acting in their own fund-raising needs using chemicals as a vehicle.
Interestingly enough, we have not had these all-out campaigns since the U.S. and Canadian apple growers sued CBS and the other "consumer" groups for $60 million over the loss of Alar.
Keith Matthie is a retired agrologist in Prince Edward county.
Cakewalk's over
After the late September opening of the new Parliament, farmers trying to meet agriculture minister Lyle Vanclief should probably plan a trip to Ottawa.The new minister has spent the past three months travelling the country, spending time in every region to introduce himself and to hear first-hand the issues he will face.
But with the opening of Parliament, his travel schedule will change. Members of the new Liberal cabinet have been told the new Parliament will be a "stay-at-home" session.
With a thin majority, the prime minister's office has warned ministers and all Liberal MPs not to stray too far lest an unexpected vote threatens to bring down the government.
The agriculture minister will have less freedom than most recent ministers to travel outside the capital, whether to meet lobby groups or to speak to meetings.
For Vanclief and all ministers, this may be a blessing in disguise, since the new Parliament promises to be a fascinating political show. For the first time ever, the House of Commons will feature five recognized parties of more than 12 MPs, with the right to sit on committees and ask questions in daily Question Period.
The Liberals had as close to a free ride as it gets in a parliamentary democracy. This Parliament should be more vigorous, more balanced, more relevant. However, once again, Ontario's and rural Ontario's issues will rarely make it to the floor of the House of Commons.
The reason is simple politics and mathematics. Ontario elected 102 Liberals, including all rural seats, and one Tory. Ordinary government MPs, the majority of them from Ontario, have little chance to be heard in Question Period, the main forum for publicizing issues.
Expect the news flowing from Parliament to be dominated by issues of concern to the West (Reform), Atlantic Canada (New Democrats and Progressive Conservatives) and Quebec (Bloc Québécois).
It will be the least rural House of Commons in Canada's history. As the country continues to urbanize, a smaller percentage of MPs represent primarily rural areas.
Yet there also will be more MPs in this Parliament whose job it is to make agriculture an issue.
There is Vanclief, of course, a Prince Edward county MP and former farmer, with a good grasp of Ontario's issues.
Across the floor, he will be facing four agriculture critics with an interest in keeping the government accountable. These four will be trolling for lobby groups with an issue to push:
- Jay Hill, the Reform Party agriculture critic, is a second-term British Columbia MP with a background in Peace River grain producing and involvement in B.C. farm politics. He is new to the agriculture critic's role and will be helped by three MPs involved in the last Parliament - Leon Benoþt from Alberta, Allan Kerpan from Saskatchewan and Jake Hoeppner from Manitoba.
- Jean-Guy Chr_tien, the Bloc Qu_b_cois critic, is a veteran from the last Parliament, a former butcher and an MP mainly concerned about supply management issues and hints that Quebec is not receiving its fair share;
- Dick Proctor, the NDP critic, is a first-time MP from Regina whose background is mainly Prairie NDP politics and grain;
- Rick Borotsik, the Conservative critic, is a former mayor of Brandon, Manitoba, and the only Tory elected west of Toronto. His issues will be Prairie grain handling and marketing.
Barry Wilson is an Ottawa-based farm writer.
SAFETY SIGNALS
The Dufferin Federation of Agriculture is using a carrot rather than a stick to promote Slow-Moving Vehicle (SMV) sign awareness. The triangular red and orange signs pop up as gate post markers at the end of driveways, sending confusing signals to drivers. While there's a $90 fine for using the sign on anything but a slow-moving vehicle, the Dufferin federation is offering free reflective markers for homeowners to substitute for the SMV signs. "Posts and mailboxes do not qualify as a slow-moving vehicle and misplaced SMV signs only create confusion for drivers," says president Paul Firth. 4-H young people will meet with landowners in Dufferin to explain the program. Reflective tape for towed farm equipment is also available to farmers at cost: (519) 928-5395.LEND ME YOUR EARS
Kemptville college student Alison Barton is $300 richer after winning second prize in the Canadian Association of Diploma in Agricultural Programs public speaking competition. Contestants sent in videotapes of their presentations. The association promotes excellence in agricultural education across Canada. (519) 824-4120, ext. 6518; blackbur@oac.uoguelph.caSTING LIKE A BEE
It's not often the lowly electric fencer gets its name in lights. Edmonton- based BEEtronics reports that its Stinger low-cost electric fence energizers have won an international engineering award for excellence. The AE50 award comes from the Society for Engineering in Agriculture, Food and Biological Systems. The AC, DC and solar-powered energizers power up to 20 km of heavily weeded fence. The AC uses the power of a 25-watt light bulb. Product carries a full guarantee, even against lightning damage. Distributors wanted. 1-800-661-3617.CYBER SEED
Harvest some agronomic information on Zeneca Seeds' new Eastern Canada Web site. Customers will find trial results on Zeneca corn and canola seed, electronic versions of Cornlink and Canolalink newsletters, and links to Zeneca agronomists. www.zenecaseeds.comDEERE LENDS SUPPORT
Corporate networking continues in agriculture, as an agricultural supply co-operative and a farm machinery giant join forces. West Des Moines, Iowa-based John Deere Credit will help supply financing to customers of Growmark's 37 member co-ops in Ontario. John Deere Credit, will handle loan administration, and supply loan capital for Growmark customers seeking crop and livestock production loans.NEW FACES
There's more than corn seed happening at Chatham-based Pioneer Hi-Bred. The seed company announces three appointments with livestock, agronomy, and canola specialties. Dairy nutritionist Doug Yungblut comes on as livestock nutritionist covering southwestern Ontario. Soil conservation expert Paul Hermans has been appointed field agronomist based at Carp, Ont. And canola breeder David Charne has been named canola research director at Pioneer's canola research headquarters at Georgetown, Ont.HOW ABOUT HENSALL?
With 4,500 members and $120 million in sales, Hensall District Co-operative is a Canadian co-op success story. Recent moves for members include an alliance with Advantage Seed Growers and Processors, a group of 12 seedsmen which recently introduced a biotech soybean variety. Hensall also continues its relationship with Kansas City-based US$10-billion co-op Farmland Industries, and has enrolled in Farmland's Ag-21, an agronomic, marketing and environmental training program for member co-ops. Farmland improved its third-quarter earnings by 22 per cent to US$60 million.WOMEN'S WELL-BEING
It was 100 years ago that Adelaide Hoodless of Stoney Creek founded the Women's Institute after her child died of milk fever. Today, WI is worldwide, and still has a strong focus on health awareness among women. The Federated Women's Institutes of Ontario have recently teamed up with the Pharmaceutical Manufacturer's Association of Canada to promote proper use of prescription medicines through the "Knowledge is the Best Medicine" program. The FWIO is also working with the Osteoporosis Society of Canada on the "Changes: Choices and Challenges" program educating women between 45 and 55 about the links between menopause and osteoporosis. 1- 800-463-6842, ext. 241.BACK TO THE USSR
Former-Soviet Ukraine, known as the breadbasket of the world, was plagued like all of the old USSR countries by lack of technology. Combines were left rusting in the field due to lack of parts. Today, the world's farm machinery makers are scrambling for a piece of this emerging market. The latest is London-based New Holland, which recently announced the opening of a second combine service centre in Ukraine. Each centre will have a central workshop and a fleet of vans. New Holland says it has sold 116 combines to Ukrainian farmers and contractors this year, and expects to import another 50 of the twin-rotor machines built in Grand Island, Nebraska, where the 25,000th machine recently rolled off the line. New Holland revenue jumped 11 per cent last year to US$5.5 billion, with combine sales up almost 18 per cent.Corn back on track
After scaring farmers with some vicious price declines in June and early July, corn prices are higher. In late August, futures were more than 40 cents per bushel higher than in early July. They got a shot in the arm from the Aug. 12 U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop report which estimated U.S. corn production at lower than expected at less than 9.3 billion bushels.Meanwhile, Ontario basis rates are supported by light farmer selling and concerns that new-crop prospects in this province are slipping, due in part to cooler than normal weather during August. The crop in some areas will have a hard time maturing before the first hard frost.
While many farmers are disappointed about the progress of their crops, you have a right to be optimistic about the general price outlook for the next several months. There will be some dips and dives as there always are. But it is important to recognize the big picture. U.S. ending stocks of corn are projected to stay tight this year. The chart of ending stocks levels over the past several years forms a graphic reminder that the U.S., which is the main supplier of corn to the world, will once again have a near-empty shelf when the 1997-98 marketing year draws to a close.
watch Far East
It's no secret that Far East demand helped fuel corn and wheat futures to record heights in 1996 and that the same demand played a supporting role in the strong soybean performance of January through July, 1997.The greatest influence on fall and winter prices could again be Far East demand. Some weather experts say this year's corn and soy crops are worse than many analysts recognize. One report recently said that several major growing regions of China had the driest July since 1916. Although China's wheat crop will be bigger than last year, the corn crop will be down sharply. The International Grains Council has clipped its global coarse grains crop estimate from 896 million tonnes last month, to 875 million, mainly due to a lower corn crop estimate in China.
This is occurring at a time when the people in North Korea are starving. This bordering nation to China is heavily armed. China has its hands full feeding itself, let alone sending food to North Korea.
These developments in the Far East didn't take centre stage in recent months when the weather in the U.S. Mid-West was the single most critical market factor. They will move to the fore in the months ahead.
cattle herd shrinking
When producers start reducing the size of the nation's cow factory, the process doesn't shift gears quickly.A moderate decline in Canada's cattle herd is continuing, according to Statistics Canada's July 1 inventory count, released recently. Total inventory as of July 1, 1997, was down 0.8 per cent from a year earlier. The herd liquidation phase had started last year, halting a decade of growth.
The cow herd is estimated at 4.7 million head, down by slightly less than one per cent.
During the past several months, farmers and ranchers have been pulling more heifers into the slaughter line-up and holding fewer for breeding purposes. The July 1 estimate of 840,400 head is down 6.4 per cent from a year ago. The result is a 10.1-per-cent increase in the number of heifers available for slaughter.
The herd cutbacks will eventually tighten the calf supply. But as of July 1, the number of calves under one year of age was down only 0.7 per cent. So the supply should be adequate to meet demand for the next few months.
Calf prices have been high because buyers of calves have enjoyed profits from feeding them the past several months, and because feed prices are relatively low. It's possible that neither of those two bullish factors will persist through this fall and winter.
Minor hog expansion
Statistics Canada says the total number of hogs on Canadian farms as of July 1, 1997, was up by a mere 0.2 per cent from the year earlier. This follows a six-per-cent jump the previous two years. The total breeding herd is estimated at one per cent more than a year ago at 1.3 million head. The herd in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada is up 0.7 per cent while the West shows a 1.7-per-cent increase to 527,000.The increases aren't as much as some in the trade expected. Big exports of feeder pigs to the U.S. could be one reason. Also, while there's notable expansion among some of the larger players, some smaller farmers are taking advantage of the high prices to sell off their herds before profits shrink.
John DePutter, a market analyst and commodities specialist, operates a telephone hotline, Ag-Alert, and publishes a monthly newsletter for members of his telephone service. Office number: (519) 433-0133.