Cattlemen seek irradiation safety net

By DON STONEMAN

Canada's beef producers hope that federal approval of irradiation technology can head off at the pass the meat contamination disasters that have plagued U.S. meat packers and exporters.

A Canadian industry group led by farmers and ranchers will petition the federal government this month to allow ground meat to be irradiated to kill bacteria that can cause food poisoning. If approval is granted, beef will be the first domestically produced irradiated food allowed to be sold in Canada.

"Quite a group of people are working with us on it," says Dennis Laycraft, Canadian Cattlemen's Association (CCA) executive vice-president.

The CCA wants food purveyors to be able to sell irradiated ground beef to institutions serving meals to "immuno-compromised" clients such as the elderly in long-term care, who are especially susceptible to food poisoning.

Irradiation is well researched and accepted in terms of safety, says Laycraft; a number of prominent scientific and health groups support its use. But treating food with radiation to kill bacteria "is a concept that isn't very well understood," he says. An extensive education effort is planned.

Among the CCA's supporters is the Consumers Association of Canada. "We wouldn't have a concern [with irradiation of beef] provided that Health Canada approves," says Chris Mitchler of Ottawa, Chairman of the CAC's National Food Committee. Irradiation must provide a safer product, and International Standards Organization (ISO) labelling must be in place, she says.

That doesn't mean the CAC wants to see irradiation used on a wide variety of foods, Mitchler warns.

There must be a benefit to the consumer, she stresses. Irradiating onions likely won't have the same benefits for consumers, she says. In the U.S., irradiation is approved by the Food and Drug Administration to treat pork for Trichinella Spiralis, poultry to control illnesses caused by micro-organisms, wheat to disinfest insects, white potatoes to extend shelf life, and fresh fruits to delay maturation.

American legislators are rushing to get beef irradiation approved by Christmas. Spurring them on is the fallout from the contaminated meat debacle in a Nebraska packing plant last summer, and complaints that e.coli contaminated meat has reached major markets in Korea.

American lawmakers are also trying to get the irradiation labelling changed. They argue that the labels, larger than the name of the product, make treated foods virtually unmarketable.

Canada has the luxury of taking a slower route. Laycraft acknowledges that with no crisis pushing on Health Canada, approval will take time.

Laycraft says irradiation won't be considered a substitute for good hygiene, however. "It's another level on top of everything else that is being done for food safety."

© copyright 1997 Agriculture Publishing Company Limited.


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How irradiation works

There are three irradiation methods that can be used to kill harmful bacteria such as e. coli and salmonella, according to news wire service American Press (AP). One method involves low doses of gamma rays from cobalt 60 or cesium 137 to treat large quantities of finished, packaged products. A separate treating facility is required away from the packing plant.

Another method involves electron beams to treat individual packages of food. This can be used only on small amounts of meat as the rays do not penetrate deeply.

A third treatment would involve using 137 gamma rays to treat large quantities of meat in the packing plant, eliminating the need for a separate facility. But this treatment is still under development.

All three have been tested and the doses of radiation required are very low, says Dennis Laycraft, Canadian Cattlemen's Association. Doses range from a minimum of 1.5 kilograys (kgys) to a maximum of 4.5 kgys on fresh meat and a minimum of two to a maximum of seven kgys on frozen meat. Codex Alimenterius, the international body which sets standards for food safety, says treatment of meat with as much as 100 kgys of radiation is safe. - DS

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MARKET  TRENDS

Production not keeping pace

Many U.S. market analysts seem to be consumed with deciding whether the U.S. corn crop is as low as 9.28 billion bushels or as high as 9.4 billion. There is also debate on whether U.S. exports of corn will be seriously reduced as a result of currency devaluations and an economic slowdown in the Pacific Rim. Some believe 1997-98 U.S. corn exports could be shaved by just five to 10 million bushels as the result of reduced buying power there, while others foresee a cut of 50 to 60 million bushels.

These may be interesting fundamental issues, but they are mere details in the big picture. The truly critical issue that Canadian farmers should be aware of is that world production of corn and other feed grains is not increasing fast enough to keep pace with consumption.

At the end of the 1997-98 marketing year, total coarse grain ending stocks as a percentage of total use could be the lowest since records were kept.

Fig. One depicts total world coarse grain production which includes corn, barley, oats, rye and some other minor grains. It shows a general uptrend in production since the 1970s. It shows a very slight decline in 1997-98, after record large output the previous year.

Even with the record production of 1996-97, ending stocks as a percentage of use were low by historic standards. In 1997-98, a slight decline in production could lead to an ending stocks-to-use ratio comparable to that of 1995-96, when low supplies sent corn prices soaring to record heights.

This graph could be adjusted slightly in the event that the U.S. corn harvest comes close to 9.4 billion bushels, or if the economic slump in the Far East cuts significantly into demand. But even those two developments wouldn't change the big picture.

In conclusion, the world's shelves will not be well-stocked when we approach the critical growing season of 1998.

Weather-sensitive soybean market
The world's users of soybeans, meal and oils are hoping for bin-busting soy production in South America. Farmers there are increasing acreage 12 to 15 per cent. If yields are generally topnotch, total production could be up by more than 15 per cent from last year.

A record-large U.S. soybean crop is now safely binned. Although this crop is being dispensed by a torrid export and crushing pace, stocks of U.S. soybeans as of March and April will be near-record high. This plus the probable appearance of a record large South American crop could put a burdensome supply on hand as of late March - early April and into May. That's when the South American crop will hit the world trading channels. The likelihood of this could weigh heavily on prices in February, because by then traders will have reliable estimates of South American yields.

However, the huge South American harvest is far from reality at this early stage. Farmers in many areas of Brazil have not begun to plant. They have been kept off fields by heavy rains. Excess rainfall has plagued the growing regions of Brazil since September. El Nino takes the blame. If planting delays persist into late November, the market will sit up and take notice. If the rains abate and dry weather develops later in the growing season, the market would similarly respond with strength.

On the bottom line, with South American production potential now running at 80 per cent of normal U.S. output, the weather there is increasingly crucial in determining global supplies and prices. In fact, it is the most important fundamental factor for Ontario prices. South American weather holds the key to your profits in soys this winter.

Pork cost-price squeeze
Ontario hog prices fell approximately 25 per cent from the summer peak to the autumn low. Although the worst of the seasonal decline should be over, a surge back up is not expected. U.S. and Canadian pork supplies are increasing as herd expansion continues. Economic jitters in the Far East are taking the sharpness out of the export market that many producers and analysts had pinned their hopes on.

While hog prices are down, input costs are rising. The late maturity and below average yields for Ontario corn have sent corn prices higher than a lot of hog finishing operators would like. Soybean meal costs are also staying high.

According to Statistics Canada, input costs for Eastern Canadian farmers in the animal production business in the third quarter of 1997 were 3.4 per cent less than those of the third quarter of 1996. Lower interest rates and feed grain get much of the credit for much of that decline. Don't expect a similar decline in the current fourth quarter. When Statistics Canada compiles data for the next few quarters, there could be some unpleasant increases.
John DePutter, a market analyst and commodities specialist, operates a telephone hotline, Ag-Alert, and publishes a monthly newsletter for members of his telephone service. Office number: (519) 433-0133.

© copyright 1997 Agriculture Publishing Company Limited.


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